Recent Analysis of the new UK strain

I read up on the new UK and South Africa Covid strains. The growth rate of the UK strain is 71% higher than other variants. The viral load suggests 0.5 increase in new the new strain.

The viral particles in the infected individual may be higher, which leads to more replication inside the cells and people are likely to shed more of it onto others.

The R-value of the UK strain shows an absolute increase between 0.39 and 0.93, that is more than twice as much. The R value represents reproduction number and indicates an average number of secondary infections caused by an infected case.

The cycle threshold or CT value in the RT-PCR test suggests a decrease of about 2. Examining data from 18 studies, investigators found significant correlations between Ct values and severe disease. Viral load from the respiratory tract and plasma are associated with markers of disease severity and inflammation. But the College of American Pathologists has said that although specimens with lower Ct-values generally have more viral RNA than specimens with higher Ct-values, the quantitation and precision associated with those differences in Ct-values have not been determined.

Although there may not be much change in the symptoms and the mortality rates remain the same in the new UK strain, if the virus spreads more efficiently it may lead to increased hospitalisations, that strain the health systems.

India has 25 confirmed cases of the UK strain till Dec 31st and their contacts are also in isolation. As the UK strain emerged in Sep, there may be many more cases in India which have not yet come to light. 

The WHO calls for genomic sequencing from 1 out of every 300 confirmed cases to find out if there are mutations occurring in the circulating virus in an area. Until recently, India seemed to be doing 10 times less than that.

Sequencing was stepped up from 21st Dec for those UK returnees who were found to be covid positive. 

There is an effort to trace the 33000 passengers who arrived in India from the UK since nov 25th, and those they may have come in contact with. Tracking down people returning to India from the UK has reportedly been challenging for the authorities. As of 30th Dec, Pune, for instance, is yet to trace 109 travellers and Odisha has been given a list of 74 more people who could be possible carriers.

In Andhra Pradesh, the state’s Health and Family Welfare department has been able to trace 1,406 UK returnees out of the 1,423 identified, according to commission K Bhaskar.

So far, 114 of around 33,000 arrivals from the UK have tested positive for Covid-19, of which 6 are positive for the new strain.

Genome sequencing will also be conducted on all international passengers who were symptomatic and tested positive for coronavirus in the 14 days from December 9 to 22. 

5% of RT-PCR positive samples in the country will also be sequenced to find out what are other types of mutations that the strains circulating in India underwent.

5000+ sequencings in the last 11 months did not reveal any virus drift or shift in India. 

All those who have recently returned from the UK will have to undergo home quarantine for 28 days even if their RT-PCR report comesnegative. As per the UP government’s advisory, those who test positive for the new mutant strain would be kept in an isolation ward.

Said K Vijayraghavan, the principal scientific advisor to the Indian government : “We must take extraordinary precautions to prevent these kinds of variants from dominating our population.”

Medical experts said that we need to ban all the international flights. Though flights from the UK are now banned, the virus strain could have spread to other countries and flights from other countries are still operational. All the precautions that were advised for covid-19 must be followed. No matter how the virus changes, it needs us to be close enough to each other and to have interactions to let it jump between us.

Meanwhile, the Centre has formed an expert panel to decide the criteria for selecting the 27 crore potential recipients of the Covid-19 vaccine after 1 crore doctors and 2 crore front line workers receive their vaccinations.

The 12-member panel comprising specialist doctors of kidney, lungs, heart diseases, and cancer would finalise the parameters based on which the recipients would be chosen. While age and comorbidity are the determining factors, the experts would also take into account the severity of a disease. For instance, mild hypertension being experienced by nearly 30% of Indians would not be counted as a comorbidity factor, but severe hypertension would be.

National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for COVID-19 had recommended prioritization of the vaccine during the initial phases to health care workers, frontline workers, persons aged 50 years and above, and those below 50 years of age with comorbidities.

It was reported on Dec 28th that the health ministry said that more than 70 percent of the nearly 1.5 lakh covid deaths occurred due to comorbidities.

Brihanmumbai Civic officials are closelymonitoring the UK, West Asia returnees and their close contacts. Special arrangements have been made for Covid-19 positive patients among them at a hospital in Marol.

As many as 1,200 of 2,600 passengers, who have returned from the UK and West Asia to Mumbai from November 25 and December 28, have been tested. Many passengers are not coming forward to reveal their travel history or their close contacts.

The Ministry of Home Affairs said the States and UTs can impose local restrictions like night curfew to check the spread of COVID-19 but made it clear that they will have to consult the Centre before imposing a lockdown outside the containment zones.

Social, religious, sports, entertainment, educational, cultural, religious gatherings with a maximum of 50 percent of the hall capacity and with a ceiling of 200 people in closed spaces were allowed by keeping the size of the ground and space in view, in open spaces.

However, based on their assessment of the situation, the state governments may reduce the ceiling to 100 people or less in closed spaces, it had said.