India will reach replacement levels of population by 2020 - that might imply Indian muslims will reach replacement levels before 2040

We have all heard the constant lies and bogus fears spread by the Hindu right about the population of Muslims in India. Here is an exchange with my neighbour today on this topic :

[6:44 PM, 3/3/2019] Neighbour : Fact is the Muslim population has actually increased in India and faster in percentage terms than of Hindus.

[7:05 PM, 3/3/2019] Me : Fertility Rate - that is, how many children does a woman have in total in all her reproductive years is higher - worldwide and among all religious denominations, for poorer people.

That is because poorer people cannot be that confident their children will grow to adulthood and be around for their parents when the parents are older. As health indicators of a population improve, especially among children, the fertility rate falls. This is science, and has been so for centuries all over the world.

[7:15 PM, 3/3/2019] Me : The latest family health survey of india showed that the total fertility rate for hindus fell from 2.6 ten years ago to 2.1 now.

That of muslims fell from 3.4 to 2.6 in the same period - that is, their fertility rate is falling faster than that of hindus. Muslims are on average having as many children now as hindus were having just 10 years ago - 2.6 per woman.

Scheduled Tribes whose poverty matches that of muslims in india, had a total fertility rate of 2.5 now.

Overall, the poorest indians had on average 3.2 children.

[7:41 PM, 3/3/2019] Me : Fertility is falling faster than expected in India, and the country is on track to reach replacement levels of fertility as soon as 2020. Fertility is declining rapidly, including among the poor and illiterate.

A study projects Muslim woman will require an additional 16 years than Hindu women to reach replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per women.

So if the hindu population reached a total fertility rate of 2.1 in india in say 2022, Muslims might reach the replacement level of 2.1 a few years before 2040.

So should you not think about the toxic messages that the hindu right has been feeding you for decades which are entirely false ?

[7:56 PM, 3/3/2019] Me : Having more children per woman is nothing to do with religion, and everything to do with poverty and health indicators. Hindu India had a higher fertility rate in 2014 (2.4) than Muslim Bangaldesh (2.2).

In fact, Bangladesh reached replacement levels of 2.1 in 2016, a few years ahead of india as a whole.

[8:03 PM, 3/3/2019] Me : As you can see from census data, the fertility rate of Bihar is higher than that of Indian Muslims on average.

Source of the image.

Discovering Teesta Setalvad..

We have been hearing the name Teesta Setalvad atleast from the days of the Gujarat riots of 2002 when she fought countless cases on behalf of victims. A very brave woman, we thought.. A seemingly vengeful Gujarat Government then began piling irrelevant case upon case on her.. 

But this is the first time I read her own words.. A year ago, she said that : 'The RSS is in power in India today. RSS is a proto-facist force and it does not believe in the Indian constitution.. We are dealing with forces that cannot tolerate dissent of any kind, particularly political dissent," Setalvad had told PTI. '

And a month ago, she writes : 'I am often accused by proponents of militarised and political faith, of being “anti-Hindu” or a “Hindu-hater”. This is then propagated by certain sections of the media. However, I have deep respect for all faiths including Hinduism. So here are 11 Hindus who inspire me.'

She then goes on to describe the inspiration she draws from Raja Ram Mohan Roy, Gandhi, and many ordinary Hindus who in the last few years stood up to stop bloodshed.

Two months ago, Teesta said : “We have in place, in about eight states, including Maharashtra, certain cow protection laws, that actually privilege the gau rakshaks. So, laws are being passed to allow gau rakshaks the power to be vigilantes.. These (laws) are all being passed under the current dispensation.. citizens will have to raise this in a rational way, saying that the cow may be a very precious animal for certain sections of Indians, but you cannot privilege lynching and killing of human beings over this issue.'

Setalvad said that there are police personnel, people in high offices, in the state executive and judiciary, who actually believe that India should be a religion-based nation.

In the end I read a piece she wrote just a week ago : it chronicles the Mumbai violence of 1992-'93 and the State's response to it. It is just a straightforward re-telling, but searing in its impact - I have read just one-third of the way down so far..

She writes : 'The build-up to these orchestrated convulsions had been systematic, from the speech and utterances by leaders of right wing supremacist organisations, well documented by Justice BN Srikrishna in the official judicial commission report into the violence.'

'The motivated campaign for the construction of the Ram temple at Ayodhya had never been just about the demolition of a place of worship, though that criminal act was bad enough; it had been successfully and cleverly shaped to  unleash a hitherto cloaked hatred of the “Muslim other”;  now blamed and victimised for a litany of historical wrongs, who, in a medieval and macabre dance of revenge, was being made to pay.'

'The BJP-Shiv Sena official announcement of a politically motivated  Mahaarti  programme in the third week of December, strangely permitted by the police and government, saw the stage being set for provocations and attacks on Muslim life and property across the length and breadth of the city...Despite these facts, to date, proponents of outfits that thrive on a manipulation of facts and through these, the narrative of history continue to speak of the Bombay communal violence as a response to the bomb blasts instead of vice versa.'