This time of the severe dust storm is as good as any to look climate change in the face. 125 people have died in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh in the present dust storm - young men celebrating their selection for the Delhi Police.. Four young children who had just finished dinner in the cool breeze on the roof of their house..
Three weeks ago also, heavy rains and thunderstorms had claimed 42 lives in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan on April 11-12.
Intense Rainfall
Increasingly intense cycles of droughts and floods are expected as more of a region’s precipitation falls in a single large storm rather than a series of small ones. For example, this year, Alwar district recieved 900 per cent of the normal rain usually received by it in the entire month of April, in a single day - April 11.
Last July, the normally quiet Rel river had overflown, causing havoc in Dhanera in Gujarat. In two days, the region had got twice the seasonal total of rainfall, and the water level in the river had exceeded 50 times the high water mark.
Researchers have found that one-to-five-day extreme rains, at levels earlier found once in about 500 years, can increase by about 20-30%. On a high emissions pathway, in the latter half of this century, the probability of a once-in-a-century flood increases 1,000 times for a city like Kolkata. The probability of intense once-in-30-year floods in the Ganga basin could increase six fold — that is, it could become once in five years.
In 2005, Mumbai received 1.5 times its normal rain for the month of July in a single day, killing 450 people in the ensuing floods. Sadly, heedless maldevelopment has continued in Mumbai, increasing the likelihood of similar events. A single day of lost productivity in Mumbai costs Rs 5,000-6,000 crore. Studies say that by 2050, the economic costs to Mumbai from climate change could be 20 % more than its entire current GDP.
Cyclones in the Arabian Sea
More heat and water in the atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures could provide more fuel to increase the wind speeds of tropical storms. Rising temperatures can cause more frequent and more severe storms over Indian cities also.
Due to climate change, cyclonic activity is increasing over the Arabian Sea and decreasing over the Bay of Bengal. Mumbai was found to be the fifth coastal city in the world to be most affected by flooding in the future, measured by economic losses. The first four are Guangzhou, Miami, New York-Newark and New Orleans.
Between 1998 and 2001, three cyclones struck the west coast of the subcontinent, not far from Mumbai, claiming over 17,000 lives. Gujarat was also hit by a severe cyclone in 1998 which caused 10,000 deaths. Then in 2007, the Arabian Sea generated its strongest ever recorded storm: Cyclone Gonu, a Category 5 hurricane, which hit Oman, Iran and Pakistan in June that year, causing widespread damage. Chennai has been hit by cyclones three years running - in 2015, 2016 and 2017.
The probability of a cyclonic storm like Harvey hitting Texas is now once in 16 years, up from once in a 100 years in the 20th century. Since the mid-1970s, the number of hurricanes that reach Categories 4 and 5 in strength has roughly doubled.
Three weeks ago also, heavy rains and thunderstorms had claimed 42 lives in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan on April 11-12.
Intense Rainfall
Increasingly intense cycles of droughts and floods are expected as more of a region’s precipitation falls in a single large storm rather than a series of small ones. For example, this year, Alwar district recieved 900 per cent of the normal rain usually received by it in the entire month of April, in a single day - April 11.
Last July, the normally quiet Rel river had overflown, causing havoc in Dhanera in Gujarat. In two days, the region had got twice the seasonal total of rainfall, and the water level in the river had exceeded 50 times the high water mark.
Researchers have found that one-to-five-day extreme rains, at levels earlier found once in about 500 years, can increase by about 20-30%. On a high emissions pathway, in the latter half of this century, the probability of a once-in-a-century flood increases 1,000 times for a city like Kolkata. The probability of intense once-in-30-year floods in the Ganga basin could increase six fold — that is, it could become once in five years.
In 2005, Mumbai received 1.5 times its normal rain for the month of July in a single day, killing 450 people in the ensuing floods. Sadly, heedless maldevelopment has continued in Mumbai, increasing the likelihood of similar events. A single day of lost productivity in Mumbai costs Rs 5,000-6,000 crore. Studies say that by 2050, the economic costs to Mumbai from climate change could be 20 % more than its entire current GDP.
Cyclones in the Arabian Sea
More heat and water in the atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures could provide more fuel to increase the wind speeds of tropical storms. Rising temperatures can cause more frequent and more severe storms over Indian cities also.
Due to climate change, cyclonic activity is increasing over the Arabian Sea and decreasing over the Bay of Bengal. Mumbai was found to be the fifth coastal city in the world to be most affected by flooding in the future, measured by economic losses. The first four are Guangzhou, Miami, New York-Newark and New Orleans.
Between 1998 and 2001, three cyclones struck the west coast of the subcontinent, not far from Mumbai, claiming over 17,000 lives. Gujarat was also hit by a severe cyclone in 1998 which caused 10,000 deaths. Then in 2007, the Arabian Sea generated its strongest ever recorded storm: Cyclone Gonu, a Category 5 hurricane, which hit Oman, Iran and Pakistan in June that year, causing widespread damage. Chennai has been hit by cyclones three years running - in 2015, 2016 and 2017.
The probability of a cyclonic storm like Harvey hitting Texas is now once in 16 years, up from once in a 100 years in the 20th century. Since the mid-1970s, the number of hurricanes that reach Categories 4 and 5 in strength has roughly doubled.
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