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Monday, October 08, 2018

Accelerating to a 1.5 degrees C warmer world by 2030..

My husband sent me a link which said that the UN has announced that the earth is on track to get 1.5 degrees C warmer by 2030.. To me that implies that it would be 2 or 2.5 degrees C warmer by 2050. The impacts of even this much rise will be overwhelming and will disrupt life support systems as we know them now.

Observations indicate a tenfold increase in the surface area of the planet experiencing extreme heat since the 1950s. This scenario could lead to a 4 degrees C rise by the end of the century.. That means, the children being born today and hereafter would live to see this : a world of unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions. Some regions of the globe, such as parts of the Middle East and the American West, may become inhabitable to humans because of extreme temperatures.

Increasing aridity and drought are likely to increase substantially in many developing countries located in the tropics. The oceans provide people with about 20 percent of their dietary protein. However, ocean acidification caused by climate change is disrupting the food web. On land, an increase of 2 degrees C would almost double the water deficit and would lead to a drop in wheat and maize harvests. If temperatures get too hot when these plants are flowering, their growth can become stunted, leading to decreased or no edible food crop.

We are accelerating towards a 4 degrees C warmer world much before the end of this century. If we do no more than we are doing today to reduce GHG emissions, the IPCC projects that temperature in 2100 will be up to approximately five degrees higher than it is today.

The impacts of the extreme heat waves projected for a 4°C world have not been evaluated, but they could be expected to vastly exceed the consequences experienced to date (heat-related deaths, forest fires, harvest losses) and potentially exceed the adaptive capacities of many societies and natural systems.

A 4°C world is likely to be one in which communities, cities and countries would experience severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation, with many of these risks spread unequally. It is likely that the poor will suffer most and the global community could become more fractured, and unequal than today.

When the global mean temperatures have risen 4 degrees C over pre-industrial levels, the largest warming will occur over land and range from 4°C to 10°C. Increases of 6°C or more in average monthly summer temperatures would be expected in large regions of the world. Almost all summer months are likely to be warmer than the most extreme heat waves presently experienced. For example, the warmest July in the Mediterranean region could be 9°C warmer than today’s warmest July.

In this new high-temperature climate regime, the coolest months are likely to be substantially warmer than the warmest months at the end of the 20th century.

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