The Story of Two Indian States..

Two south Indian states, namely Kerala and Tamil Nadu, stand out as having developed more extensive transport facilities that have helped restrain the use of personal vehicles.

The bus and train network, the backbone of the public transport system, meets the transport requirements of 31 % of the workforce engaged in industry and services in Kerala and 26 % of the workforce in Tamil Nadu.

In contrast in 2011, the public transport system provided commuting facilities to only 18 % of the workforce at the national level. More than 50% of the workforce (excluding domestic and agriculture) continue to work at home or travel to their workplace by foot in the absence of adequate transport facilities. Citizens are largely dependent on private transport. 

The public transport system in Tamil Nadu and Kerala thus carries a higher percentage of workers than even in metros like Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata and Bengaluru, where the public transport systems cater to the needs of 25 %, 22 % 26 % and 25 % of the workforce.

Only Mumbai has a much larger public transport system than these two southern states. This is because the train network which transports 25 % of the workforce in Mumbai adds to the facilities offered by the bus transport system which carries another 16 % of the workforce and pushes up the total share of the public transport network in Mumbai to 41 %, which is the highest share in the country.

The Mumbai Suburban Railway is the first rail system in India which began services in Mumbai in 1853. It transports 6 million passengers daily and has the highest passenger density in the world.

What pushes the public transport network in Kerala and Tamil Nadu behind that in Mumbai is the minimal share of the train networks which carry only 2% of the workforce in these states. With the train network under the exclusive jurisdiction of the central government, the two states have hardly any leverage to expand train facilities until very recently when metro rail projects began to be implemented in the cities. However, the bus transport network in Kerala and Tamil Nadu is vastly superior to that in the other states or even in the metros.

Thus while the bus transport network in Kerala carries 29 % of the workforce, that in Tamil Nadu carries 23 % - while the share is only 11 % at the all India level.

The share of bus transport in these two states are also substantially larger than the bus transport facilities even in the metros where its share is 22 % in Delhi, 16 % in Mumbai, 19 % in Chennai, 22 % in Kolkata and 24 % in Bengaluru.

In fact, the rural public transport system in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which carries 28 % and 29 % of the rural workforce in these states, are even better than that of the metros.

The extensive public transport facilities in Kerala and Tamil Nadu has helped them reduce their dependence on vehicles of personal use like two wheelers and cars. Thus we find that though Kerala and Tamil Nadu have much higher incomes than the all India average, the share of their workers using four wheelers like cars, van, taxi and tempos are either similar or sometimes even much lower than the all India share.

The scenario is also the same in the case of two wheelers with the use of bicycles for commutating in Kerala and Tamil Nadu lower than in the country as a whole.

India has ended up prioritizing roads and private motorized vehicles for transport

At 0.66 km of highway per square kilometre of land the density of India's highway network is higher than that of the United States (0.65) and far higher than that of China's (0.16) or Brazil's (0.20). About 65% of freight and 80% passenger traffic is carried by roads in India. Average growth of the number of vehicles has been around 10 % per annum over recent years.

Increase in greenhouse gas emissions from transport sector is highest among all other sectors in India.

Indian cities are experiencing an explosive motorisation phase. It had taken 60 years – from 1952 to 2008 – for the number of registered vehicles in the country to reach 105 million.

But thereafter, the same number was added in a mere six years – between 2009 and 2015. At the same time, the share of public transport in overall transportation modes is expected to decrease from over three-fourths in 2000-01, to less than half in 2030-31.

Bhopal, Kolkatta and Mumbai topped the ranking of 14 Indian cities recently on how public transport contributes to air pollution and energy use. The first modern rapid transit in India is the Kolkata Metro which started its operations in 1984.

Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad score poor in the ranking of 14 cities.

Roads are jammed with traffic 60-70 % of the time in Bangalore, Mumbai and Kolkatta.

Cities need policies to stop urban sprawl; reduce distances between residence, jobs and recreation through compact urban forms; scale up integrated public transport, walking and cycling; and put restraints on use of personal vehicles to avert pollution and climate crisis.

At least 13 people die every hour in road accidents in the country. In the year 2007, road accidents claimed more than 130,000 lives in India, overtaking China. Sadly, 54 % of people killed in road accidents are in the 15-34 years age group. It is estimated that the economy lost around 3% of GDP (1999-2000) due to road mishaps.

Oil and gas industry in India imports 82% of its oil needs and aims to bring that down to 67% by 2022 by replacing it with local exploration, renewable energy and indigenous ethanol fuel.

Cost of logistics in India is 14% of GDP, which is higher than the developed nations, and government reforms aim to bring it down to 10% of GDP by 2022. Although India's rank in the annual logistics performance index isnt bad at no. 44 in 2018 (out of 160 countries).

An astonishing 11 months a year of hot days for Kochi..

32 C feels like 40 C with the average annual humidity across india of 65-70 %. This link tells you how the heat days have increased in your city since the 1960s.

Kochi and Mumbai’s 6 months of heat a year in the 1960s (atleast 32 degrees C a day) have increased to 9 and 8 months respectively now. By the 2040s the hot days are set to increase to an astonishing 11 months a year for Kochi and 10 months a year for mumbai.

Chennai and Kolkatta’s 6-7 months of heat a year in the 1960s have increased to 8 months now and will cross 9 months a year in the 2040s.

Pune, Delhi and Bhiwadi’s 6 months of heat a year in the 1960s have increased to 7 months now and will cross 8 months a year in the 2040s.

Bangalore had 3 months of days of atleast 32 C or above in 1962, when I was born. Now those 3 months have increased by 18 days and will become 4.5 months in the 2040s.

How Hot Will it Get ?

• Delhi will, in a few years' time, be nearly 4 degrees hotter than it was in the 1940s, and 5.6 degrees C hotter by 2050.

• By 2030, Delhi will get nearly 40% less rain than it does now. 

• For Mumbai, a 1-1.4 degree increase in minimum temperatures and a 10-14% increase in extreme rainfall is projected by 2030. since the region already experiences heavy rainfall, even a  small increase could make a huge difference. Mumbai’s location below high tide level and only 10 to 15 m above sea level makes it more vulnerable. High tides could contribute to making an excess rainfall event into a disastrous one, as it did on 26/7. And rising sea level aggravates the danger.

• By the turn of the century, 80 % of india’s population will experience temperatures that are dangerous or un-liveable. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural Indo-Gangetic river basins. 

• Extreme heat puts pressure on essential services such as energy, transport, and health. During the 2016 heatwave, India’s hospitals received twice as many patients as usual.

• A heat wave struck the normally hot city of Ahmedabad in May, 2010, and temperatures soared to 48 Celsius. They resulted in a 43 percent increase in mortality, compared to the same period in previous years.

• Since then some governments aided by the Natural Resources Defense Council, an advocacy group, have put in place simple measures. In Ahmedabad, for instance, city-funded vans distribute free water during the hottest months. In the eastern coastal city of Bhubaneswar, parks are kept open in afternoons so outdoor workers can sit in the shade. Some cities that had felled trees for construction projects are busy trying to plant new ones.

• In Ahmedabad, city funds have been used to slather white reflective paint over several thousand tin-roofed shanties, bringing down indoor temperatures. In Hyderabad, a similar effort is being tested. A pilot project by a team of engineers and urban planners covered a handful of tin-roofed shacks with white tarpaulin. It brought down indoor temperatures by at least two degrees, which was enough to make the intolerable tolerable.

• The economic fallout of higher temperatures will be immense since the large majority of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. The decline in agricultural output will endanger the region’s food security. 

• Heatwaves are an economic drain. They can cut goods and services outputs by more than 20 percent in sectors such as manufacturing and construction.

At the all-India level, an energy shortfall of 5 % is expected by 2030.

By 2050, rising temperatures could sharply diminish the living standards of a third of India's population. 

Sea-level rise and deforestation - what are we doing to cope ?

Sea-level Rise

Over the past 20 years, sea levels have risen by 5-6 cm on the Konkan coast, just North of Mumbai. A 5-6 cm rise has led to the ingress of sea water up to 1 km inland, eroding beaches, harming mangroves and coconut and cashew plantations. So it can be imagined what impact the estiamted 90 cms of sea-level rise will have by 2100 - Nearly 40% of Mumbai could be under water. The Indian subcontinent is likely to lose 14,000 sq km of land if sea level rises by a meter. 

The standard response of the authorities only when the situation gets too serious is to construct bunds to keep the sea at bay. These cost as much as Rs 60,000 per metre and are only built at certain stretches.

In India, almost 40 million people will be at risk from sea-level rise by 2050, according to a UN report, with people in Mumbai and Kolkata at higher risk. Experts believe that given this increasing risk, coastal cities must prepare for such eventualities. Evacuation plans should be put in place. In 2005, no Mumbaikar could access higher ground because the roads and railway tracks were under water. Boats, which could have worked, were not provided for rescue or relief.

Deforestation has led to less rain

Analysis of rainfall amount during different seasons indicates decreasing tendency in the summer monsoon rainfall, and increasing trend in the rainfall during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months. This impacts the present cropping patterns - for example, the pre-monsoon showers in April and May 2018 have caused heavy losses to farmers. 

A study found that forests in north and northeast India contributed significantly towards rainfall through recycled precipitation. Thick vegetation holds moisture well, this evaporates and comes back as rain. Large amounts of trees have been cut in these regions to make way for crops. The study found that large-scale deforestation is responsible for the declining rainfall in the Gangetic plain, Northeast India, and Central India. 

Studies say that overall crop yields could decrease up to 30% in South Asia by the middle of this century.