I decided to re-visit the Capetown water story as it has made people think..

But many of us know only that Capetown city faced a day when there would be no more water in its taps. But not much of the story before and after.. Here is that story, with many lessons for the rest of the cities across the world.. 

In 2007, South Africa's Department of Water Affairs and Forestry predicted that the growing demand on the Western Cape Water Supply System would exceed supply if water conservation and demand management measures were not implemented. Before the crisis, Capetown, a city of 4 million (around one-fourth that of Delhi) consumed 1200 million litres a day. Per capita per day consumption was 135 litres.

An El Nino-triggered drought in 2015 hit agricultural production and economic growth throughout South Africa. Cape Town was particularly hard hit, and lack of good subsequent rains around the city made its water shortage worse. The burden of making sure Day Zero did not happen rested largely on household's ability to cut down on water usage. 

Restrictions were imposed on 1 June 2017, limiting the usage of water to 100 litres per person per day. By early October 2017, following a low rainfall winter, Cape Town had an estimated five months of storage available before water levels would be depleted. "Water rationing through extreme pressure reduction" was implemented immediately. 

In early 2018, when the dam levels were predicted to decline to critically low levels by April because of lack of rain, the City announced plans for "Day Zero", when the municipal water supply would largely be shut off if a particular lower limit of water storage was reached, potentially making Cape Town the first major city in the world to run out of water.

Through water saving measures, the City reduced its daily water usage by more than half to around 500 million litres per day in March 2018. Residents lived with stringent consumption restrictions through most of 2018, at 50 litres per person per day.

Urban residents were requested not to flush the toilet after urinating, to flush using rainwater or greywater after defecating, and to reduce the length and frequency of showers. In order to conserve water, hand sanitizer was provided in offices and public buildings for use instead of conventional hand-washing. Some cafes began using plastic and paper cups and plates, to reduce dish-washing.

50 litres a day per person is just enough for a 90-second shower, 4 litres of drinking water / tea / coffee, neembu drink, etc., a sink-ful to hand-wash dishes or laundry, one cooked meal, two hand washings, two teeth brushings and one toilet flush. 

In September 2018, with rains having at last arrived and dam levels close to 70%, the city began easing water restrictions to 70 litres per person per day. Dam levels peaked at 76% and in November 2018, restrictions were reduced to 105 litres per person per day, aiming for a 30% saving on normal usage.  

In contrast, average water consumption in Delhi is estimated at 240 liters per capita per day. It is to be remembered that South Africa's per capita GDP is three times that of India as is its per capita water storage capacity. 

The 60% restriction in 2018 of water usage for irrigation by agriculture around Cape Town resulted in the loss of 37,000 jobs in the Western Cape Province and an estimated 50,000 people being pushed below the poverty line due to job losses, inflation and increases in the price of food.

The Story of Rice..

Rice is the world’s most important food. More than half of the world’s population depends on rice for food calories and protein, especially in developing countries.

According to the Economic Survey 2015-2016, in wheat, India's average yield in 2013 of 3075 kg/ha is lower than the world average of 3257 kg/ha. The picture is starker in paddy production where all Indian states have yields below that of China and most states have yields below that of Bangladesh. India's best state, Punjab, has paddy yield close to 6000 kg/ha whereas China's yield is 6709 k .. 

The inefficient use of water for agriculture is affecting the productivity. Although water is one of India's most scarce natural resources, India uses 2 to 4 times more water to produce a unit of major food crop than does China and Brazil. 

The world’s largest rice producers by far are China and India. The next largest rice producers are Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Thailand. These seven countries together account for more than 80% of world production.

The ‘Green Revolution’ is the name given to the dramatic increase in cereal crop yields through modern agricultural inputs – irrigation, fertilizers, improved seeds, and pesticides – in the 1960s. For rice, the revolution began with the release by IRRI of the high- yielding semidwarf variety IR8 in 1966. The world average rice yield in 1960, the product of thousands of years of experience, was about 2 tonnes/hectare (T/ha). Astonishingly, in only 40 more years, as the Green Revolution spread, it doubled, reaching 4 t/ha in 2000. The rice varieties and technologies developed during the Green Revolution have increased yields in some areas to 6–10 t/ha. 

Although the Green Revolution was mainly a technology revolution, it required strong public support and policies to develop the technologies, build the required infrastructure, ensure that markets, finance, and input systems worked and that farmers had enough knowledge and economic incentive to adopt the new practices. Public interventions were especially crucial in Asia for ensuring that small farmers were not left behind, and without which the Green Revolution would have been much less pro- poor. On average, Asian countries were spending 15.4% of their total government spending on agriculture by 1972 and they doubled the real value of their agricultural expenditure by 1985. 

Governments also shored up farm credit systems, subsidized key inputs – especially fertilizer, power, and water – and intervened in markets to ensure that farmers received adequate prices each year to make the technologies profitable. Many governments used their interventions to ensure that small farms did not get left behind. Substantial empirical evidence at the time showed that small farms were the more efficient producers in Asia and land reform and small farm development programs were implemented to create and support large numbers of small farms. Small farm–led agricultural growth proved to be not only more efficient but also more pro-poor, a win-win proposition for growth and poverty reduction.

Since the mid-1990s, population growth has exceeded rice yield growth and the gap has been growing steadily larger, creating a significant imbalance between supply and demand. This trend is evident for Asia as a whole, but also separately for East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Stagnation in area harvested further contributed to the problem, and prices eventually began to rise. Indeed, world market rice prices rose steadily by a cumulative 67% between April 2001 and September 2007.

There are several possible reasons for the slowdown in rice yield growth and production: displacement of cereals on better lands by more profitable crops such as groundnuts, diminishing returns to modern varieties when irrigation and fertilizer use are already high, and the fact that cereal prices have fallen relative to input costs, making additional intensification less profitable. There is also concern that pest and disease resistance to modern pesticides now slows yield growth, and that breeders have largely exploited the yield potential of major Green Revolution crops. 

Environmental problems that have arisen in different areas include excessive and inappropriate use of fertilizers and pesticides that pollute waterways and kill beneficial insects and other wildlife, irrigation practices that lead to salt buildup and eventual abandonment of some of the best farming lands, increasing water scarcities in major river basins, and retreating groundwater levels in areas where more water is being pumped for irrigation than can be replenished. Some of these outcomes were inevitable as millions of largely illiterate farmers began to use modern inputs for the first time, but the problem was exacerbated by inadequate extension and training, an absence of effective regulation of water use and quality, and input pricing and subsidy policies that made modern inputs too cheap and encouraged their excessive use.

Globally, farmers need to produce at least 8–10 million tons more paddy rice each year—an annual increase of 1.2–1.5% over the coming decade, equivalent to an average yield increase of 0.6 t/ha during the next decade. Over the longer run, global rice consumption growth is expected to slow down but yields will have to continue to grow faster than at present because of pressure on rice lands in the developing world from urbanization, climate change, and competition from other, high-value agriculture. Rice yield growth of 1.0–1.2% annually beyond 2020 will be needed to feed the still-growing world and keep prices affordable.

Acknowledgement : This section sourced largely from this article. 

Desalination is unaffordable and destructive of the environment & livelihoods

According to the International Desalination Association (IDA), there are around 18,426 desalination plants spread across 150 countries, benefitting as many as 300 million people.

55 % of Israel’s domestic water consumption is manufactured and many countries, especially in the arid regions of Northern Africa and the Middle East, find desalination a relatively cheaper option compared to other alternatives.

India’s average annual rainfall is about 1,200 mm. In contrast, middle eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar get much less than 100 mm a year. Many developed countries in Europe and even the US, get much less rain than India (715 mm 
yearly for the latter). 

Rain at Plant / Prabas007 / CC-BY-SA 4.0

Desalination as a “solution” for Tamil Nadu’s water problem is what social activists disparagingly refer to as a ‘technofix’. Technofixes and their proponents are dangerous because they aggravate the problem that they claim to address by lulling society into a false sense of complacency. Their actions highlight dubious benefits even as it exacts a heavy price on the environment and invisible and marginalised sections of society.

A new mission on desalination is in the works in India, according to union minister of earth sciences, Harsh Vardhan. Despite the reliance on desalination, countries like Israel have invested heavily in securing their water sources and recycling used water. For example, Israel treats close to 85 percent of its wastewater which it then uses for irrigation, gardening and industrial purposes. In fact in 2005, less than seven percent of Israel’s total water needs was met through desalination plants.

Another country that is often on the cutting edge of technology and practicality is Singapore. It is working to ramp up the recycling of treated sewage as well as construct more desalination plants. The plan is to increase water supply from the former source from 30 % to 50 % and the latter from 10 % to 30 %.

Singapore River / Formulax / CC-BY-SA 2.0.

In 2002, Singapore reclaimed water from a sewage treatment plant at an additional cost of 30 cents per thousand litres using advanced membranes, filtration and disinfection. Desalinated water is more expensive by two and a half times at 78 cents per thousand litre, and Singapore is resorting to it only as it has little land to store rainwater.

With the ongoing awareness programmes, Singapore's National Water Agency aims to reduce per capita domestic water use to less than 150 ltrs by 2020. Compare that to over 400 ltrs per day use by US residents and 550 ltrs per day by UAE residents, when living standards of Singapore residents are not thought to be poorer compared to USA and UAE. So responsible planning and use need to go hand and in hand with planning for new water sources. 

Critics decry the high cost and high energy consumption of desalination, which can have a negative impact on the environment and on our oceans. Desalinating 1 cubic meter (1000 litres) of water requires 3.5 units of electricity per 1000 litres. In comparison, the average daily electricity consumption of an Indian household is about 3 units of electricity.

Kanchipuram, India / McKay Savage / CC-BY-SA 2.0

Thus, an average family of five consuming 675 ltrs for domestic use at the rate of 135 ltrs per capita (the norm suggested by the Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organisation for cities with piped water supply where sewerage system is existing/ contemplated) will increase its electricity usage per day by nearly 80 % (an addition of about 2.3 units of electricity) simply to use desalinated water - even if the desalinated water production cost is subsidized by the State. 

Together, the two desalination plants in Chennai are estimated to consume between 500,000 to 700,000 units of electricity each day if they run at full capacity– enough to power 2 lakh households for a day. The electricity required to run the desalination plants will come from power plants, which have their own negative impacts on the environment, climate change and human health. 

The end-user price for water manufactured at the newer, lower-cost Nemmeli desalination plant located in Chennai is about Rs 50 per 1000 litres or Rs. 34 for 675 ltrs a day for a family of five. A month's usage thus translates to more than Rs. 1000 for such a family. 

Arizona Cap Canal / US Govt.

In contrast, the average cost of production of the conventional piped supply of water is almost one fourth the cost of production in desalination plants. For example, Chennai Metrowater buys water from the Minjur desalination plant at 54 per kilolitre (Kl). On the other hand, conventional sources cost 13/Kl. Thus the water supply for an average family would cost about Rs. 9 a day or about Rs. 260 a month if the water was sourced from conventional sources. 

Even in Israel which is tom-tommed to have the most cost efficient technologies for desalination, the price of desalinated water is ILS 2.50 per cubic meter (ILS - Israeli New Shekel), while brackish water pumped up from underground acquifers, costs only ILS 1.00 per cubic meter. Israel’s Sorek plant, which is the largest in the world, can produce a thousand litres of drinking water for 58 cents which is still nearly double the cost of recycling wastewater in Singapore. 

According to the Department of Atomic Energy, Government of India, on an average, the cost of conversion of sea water into desalinated water is about 10 paise per litre of water produced. That would imply a Rs. 100 cost per 1000 ltrs of water produced !

And as to proponents of using desalinated water for agriculture - just the water costs of producing a kilo of rice using desalinated water will be about Rs 100 in Tamil Nadu.

Palm Tree Farm in Israel/ Tiia Monto / CC-BY-SA 3.0

The glowing articles in the media about the transformation of Israeli agriculture due to desalination, fail to highlight the costs and contexts within which such a transformation can be justified. Israel’s water needs are paltry compared to India's. Israeli agro-climatic conditions are vastly different. The arid regions of Israel do not receive the kind of rainfall that many regions of India get. And Israel grows vegetable and fruit crops suited to its arid lands, unlike much of India focusing on water intensive crops. 

Beyond the links to climate problems, marine biologists warn that widespread desalinisation could take a heavy toll on ocean biodiversity; as such facilities’ intake pipes essentially vacuum up and inadvertently kill, millions of plankton, fish eggs, fish larvae and other microbial organisms that constitute the base layer of the marine food chain. Marine fisheries, which are an important source of inexpensive protein and livelihood for lakhs of fishworkers, will be harmed.

There seems to have been no warfare for 2000 years !

I am still reading / watching Mesopotamia.. Here among others..

Civilized living in the form of settled farmers and beautiful pottery, seems to have begun in Sumer around 7000 years ago, although the first irrigation canals date to 8000 years ago.

Some 6000 years ago, trade facilitated the rise of many large, temple-centered cities (with populations of over 10,000 people) where centralized administrations employed various workers. It was at this time that Sumerian cities began to make use of slave labor.

These cities were most likely headed by a priest-king, assisted by a council of elders, including both men and women. There was little evidence of institutionalized violence or professional soldiers uptill now, and towns were generally un-walled. During this period Uruk became the most urbanised city in the world, surpassing for the first time 50,000 inhabitants.

The dynastic period began some 5000 years ago and was associated with increased violence. Cities became walled, and increased in size as undefended villages in southern Mesopotamia disappeared. The now deciphered syllabic writing started to develop from the early pictograms.

In conclusion then, warfare was not a part of the civilization that existed in Sumer from 7000 – 5000 years ago.